The Weak In Rock

I think most Americans probably do a major eye-roll whenever they hear news reports about the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve Board. Discussions about questions of whether or not the Fed is going to raise or lower the prime rate that banks borrow money from the Fed at most likely leaves most of you feeling like you’re having a bad dream where you’re surrounded by nerds who are discussing stuff that’s way over your head.

Fair enough. Not everyone needs to understand these things. I guess.

Oh who am I kidding. YOU need to understand these things. Why? Because it impacts your pocketbook.

The essential mission of the Fed here is to try to keep the economy from either cooling down too much or overheating. The main gauge of this they use is the rate of inflation. The conventional wisdom is that former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, was a genius at this stuff and that it’s he and not Bill Clinton who should get the credit for the sustained economic boom that occurred from 1994 to 2001 and also for preventing an all-out recession when the dot com bubble burst, quickly followed by wingnuts flying planes into the World Trade Center in 2001.

The thing is, if you start running the numbers in a serious way it looks like the main way that Greenspan “grew” the economy and prevented a recession was by letting inflation, in fact, get near completely out of hand. Conservative pundits claim that inflation has remained negligible, but they base that conclusion on looking at a set up numbers that are mostly irrelevant to the vast majority of working people. They look at the cost of goods sold to major manufacturers, durable goods and major purchases, like automobiles. They don’t look at simple stuff like the cost of buying food to feed a family of four, the price of gasoline (in fact, the price of gasoline is deliberately excluded from all government indexes used to track inflation) or the cost of electricity to light and heat your home.

If you do look at these run-of-the-mill expenses that impact working families at a very basic level then inflation is very clearly out of control. According to statistics compiled by the Center for American Progress the cost of a basic dinner for a family of four has risen over 39% in the past ten years. The price of electricity has risen 25% and the cost of gasoline an astronomical 135%.

One wonders at how anyone could look someone in the eye and say “inflation is not a major factor in today’s economy” when any single basic necessity in the modern economy can have a price jump in ten years of 135%. This is, in fact, the answer to the question I hear from so many people today - where is all my money going? It’s depreciating in value rapidly.

If you use gasoline prices as a barometer of the value of a dollar, then a dollar in 2007 is worth 13.5 cents in 1997 money. Obviously the total value of the dollar hasn’t crashed that drastically. But even if we use the price of electricity as our barometer then that 2007 dollar is only worth 75 cents in 1997 money. That’s a massive loss of value.

But why doesn’t anyone seem to care? Simple. Because what the monetary policies of the US government in the past 10 years have done is effectively set up one economy for business and one for schlubs like you and me. In the business economy everything is cool. Or at least it was until the current credit crisis threatened to make it impossible for big businesses to borrow money. Interestingly enough, the credit crisis was created by everyday schlubs being forced to borrow well outside their means, using ethically questionable mortgages, in order to attempt to own their own homes. That’s a crisis that wouldn’t have occurred if the value of money hadn’t disintegrated for the average American worker over the past ten years.

Housing costs are another barometer of inflation. The house across the street from where I live was sold in 1997 for $353,000. It is currently valued at $917,000. That’s over 250% increase in a ten year period. It’s not reasonable to assume that a house that has not increased in size or been significantly altered would increase in value by that margin in such a short period of time. But most folks have been blindly unquestioning of the so-called real estate boom of the past several years. Not me. If we assume that the price of electricity is a good measure of the average rate of inflation over the past ten years then my neighbor’s house is actually only worth about $690,000. That still puts the house at an appreciation of about 100%. Not too shabby. But if we take the rate of inflation to be closer to what the price of dinner for a family of four has risen at over the past ten years, then my neighbor’s house is really only worth about $550,000, which would mean it’s only grown in value by about 50%, which is altogether more reasonable (and in my neighborhood would fit in with rates of appreciation over the past 30 years).

Heaven help you though if you adjust the value of your home or your investments assuming that the price of gasoline reflects the true rate of the past ten years of inflation at 135%. If you do that, then my neighbor’s house is worth $229,000 less than it was worth in 1997. That’s a loss in value of more than a third. Ouch.

The real number is somewhere inbetween all of these, but that still makes it terrible. So, the next time you hear someone praising Alan Greenspan or his successor, Ben Bernanke, for keeping inflation under control, tell them to blow it out their nether parts. We, as in you and me, are getting screwed.

Technorati Tags: Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, recession, inflation, Center for American Progress, the cost of gasoline, Ben Bernanke

A vital element in keeping the peace is our military establishment. Our arms must be mighty, ready for instant action, so that no potential aggressor may be tempted to risk his own destruction…

This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every statehouse, every office of the federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals so that security and liberty may prosper together.

- President Dwight D. Eisenhower in his farewell address to the nation, 1961

Technorati Tags: military-industrial complex, Dwight D. Eisenhower

One does not typically expect to be bedridden with a 100 degree fever in early August, but this is precisely where I found myself this Saturday. Plans for yard work, long bike rides, trips to Home Depot to pick accent colors for my upcoming interior painting project - *poof* - all in a blaze of nasal congestion, a sore throat and the aforementioned fever.

I was not alone in my misery, mind you. Kid #2 brought the ick home with her from daycare. Kid #1 succumbed to said ick on Friday. So, come Saturday morning when Ryan should have been hatching plans to slay the Morlocks that apparently live in our southern side-lot and I should have been mowing lawns, spraying weeds and contemplating a leisurely ride on my trusty steed, we were both instead pretty much unable to do a lot more than moan and fart.

Many years ago, when I was a bachelor living alone in San Francisco I invented a ritual of watching a favorite movie any time I was laid up by the ick. Back in those days I’d dust off my ill-gotten copy of Citizen Kane and watch it and wonder at how any movie could be so brilliant. Then I’d take twice the recommended dose of Nyguil (mind you, this was back in the day when Nyquil actually contained some semi-powerful pseudo narcotics) sleep until the following morning and be miraculously cured. After dozens of viewings of Citizen Kane I actually grew tired of watching it. I still think it’s the greatest film ever made and will debate this point until my lips fall off with anyone who cares to, but I’ve watched the damned thing now so many times that when I’m in a diminished capacity I can’t enjoy it. I think too damned much when I watch Kane now.

To resolve this predicament and still achieve my trusty miracle cure from my bouts with recurrent Ebola I switched to somewhat less weighty fare several years ago when I bought my first copy of the Star Wars Trilogy. Yes, that’s right. You read that correctly. I said my first copy of the Star Wars Trilogy. The first set I bought was a set of VHS tapes of the original theatrical cut of each Episodes IV, V and VI. Naturally the print used in these copies was inferior, so when Lucasfilm released the restored (and enhanced - as in the set with extra digitally re-done footage) I, being one of those 11 year old boys who saw Star Wars for the first time in a movie theater in 1977 and had my world well and truly rocked by it, had to buy the new set. Of course, this set was also on VHS tape, so when I got a DVD player and the enhanced version of the Trilogy was released on DVD in Widescreen it took me all of ten seconds to plop down my check card at Best Buy and gobble it up.

The next set of Star Wars DVDs I purchased were the second Trilogy - the prequel - Episodes I, II and III. Yes, I too was pained by Jar Jar Binks and the Hop Sing caricatures of the Trade Federation. But must I remind you that I’m a first generation Star Wars nerd. When I saw Episode I for the first time I was so stunned by the gross ethic stereotyping in some of the characters that I almost didn’t like the film. And my companion in the theater was vocal in her dislike of it. But since this was a Star Wars film I went back and saw it again. And without the shock I experienced the first time, I saw the underlying intelligence of the film, and was overwhelmed by the elegance of the fight scene with Darth Maul at the end. In the end I decided that not only did I like Episode I, I loved it. And I loved the other two films in the second trilogy even more, especially the final film whose ending actually made me cry the first time I saw it.

So, I had in my collection all six episodes of the greatest space opera ever told. But something was missing. The DVDs of the first Trilogy were not the films I’d experienced in the theater. Sure, the underlying plot and major characters were unchanged, but George Lucas had used these films to test out ideas and techniques he was going to use in the second Trilogy. Some bits were cool, but some parts were just dorky or downright stupid looking. Then, bless my soul - Lucasfilm released all three original films on DVD in their original theatrical cut with the prints restored. Do I own these? Does the Pope shit in the woods?

So, this past Saturday as Ryan and I suffered under the yoke of microbial terror I turned to Ryan and said, “so, which Star Wars movie do you want to watch?” We ended up watching all three of the prequel episodes in a row. In terms of treatment for our respective infections I’d say this dosage was pretty excessive. To be honest, once Episode III: Revenge of the Sith(damn that’s a cool title) was rolling the closing credits Ryan was antsy as a June bug on a hot frying pan and my brain genuinely hurt, but we both awoke this morning feeling quite a bit better than we had, and darned if I don’t still love all three films. Are they flawless? No, but neither were the original Star Wars films. I am honestly at a loss for why so many people who loved the original Star Wars Trilogy not only claim to dislike the prequels, but express utter hatred, violent hatred for them.

On his new album Patton Oswalt, a man whose work I thoroughly enjoy and a guy I’d love to have a beer with some day, devotes a segment to a bit about how he’s a rotten person because if he was suddenly given the power to travel back in time he wouldn’t stop Hitler or prevent JFK’s assassination. No, he’d go back to the early 1990s and kill George Lucas to prevent him from making the prequels. The bit is funny, but it’s funny mostly because I’ve heard similar sentiments from so many people.

Chuck Klosterman wrote a pretty fine article for Esquire a few years ago in which he talks about the absurdity of people feeling that something as basically abstract as “your country” or “culture” could betray you. And Klosterman rightly points out how ridiculous this is. Betrayal is a horrible thing. Possibly the most horrid thing one person can do to another. It is not, however, something a nation or culture can do to anyone. Star Wars fans, I’m afraid, take their attachment to those first three films way too seriously. They forget that they’re just movies. They signify nothing and are ultimately trivial. Similarly fans of the Sopranos got themselves absurdly into bunched-up-panty-mode when that series ended without any sort of meaningful conclusion. (Of course I can’t fail to mention that the concept of TV series having a conclusion of any sort is a relatively new fangled invention. Gunsmoke ran of a bazillion years and went off the air without anything being resolved. Likewise series like Hawaii-5-O and Marcus Welby, MD. The concept of a series having a conclusion really got traction with M*A*S*H, a show that shouldn’t have had any linear plot to it at all - unless the writers wanted to try to explain why the doctors and nurses of the 4077th had all managed to age 10 years while serving a single tour of duty in a war that only lasted four years. And this concept of TV series having meaningful narrative conclusions should have well and truly jumped the shark with either the premature conclusion of Star Trek: Enterprise, which was wrapped up so neat and tidy it lacked any dramatic interest at all; or the conclusion of Friends where we have to endure the ridiculousness of the breaking open of the damned foosball table to save Joey and Chandler’s pet duck and chick; or somebody should have gotten the point when Seinfeld, a show openly about nothing, was forced to have a concluding episode, which few people got and even fewer people liked. If a show has an actual narrative arc it makes sense for it to have an ending, if it’s just 7 seasons of episodes to fill up a later syndication run then it really can just not have any more episodes.)

Something is all out of whack when millions of people care more about having a conventional conclusion to a TV series than they do about what their country’s monetary policy is, or when our soldiers are going to come home and stop being paid to murder brown people in some third rate banana republic in the middle east. It doesn’t bother me that Patton Oswalt made a joke about wanting to travel back in time to kill George Lucas and stop him from making the prequels. It does bother me that when he says that line in his show it gets the biggest and heartiest laugh of the night.

Maybe it’s me. About once every six months I find myself arguing with someone who wants to convince me that I shouldn’t think Back In Black is the greatest hard rock record of all time because Bon Scott was too dead to sing on it. I don’t make excuses for what I like. I didn’t spend hours a few weekends ago seeking out mp3s of Pat Travers’ records from the late 1970s out of some desire to be weird or overt. I really like Pat Travers. I really like the Star Wars prequels. If someone gave me the power to travel back in time and change one thing, I’d honestly leave it all exactly the way it is.

Technorati Tags: Citizen Kane, Nyguil, Ebola, Star Wars Trilogy, Lucasfilm, Jar Jar Binks, Darth Maul, George Lucas, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, Patton Oswalt, Chuck Klosterman, Esquire, the Sopranos, Gunsmoke, Hawaii-5-O, Marcus Welby, MD, M*A*S*H, Star Trek: Enterprise, Friends, Seinfeld, Back In Black, Bon Scott, Pat Travers

Barry Bonds hit 756 last night and I literally couldn’t stand to watch it. I was out of the room when it happened and Ryan came running in, very excitedly to tell me. I came out into the living room and saw Barry jog around 3rd and make it to home with all the fireworks and streamers falling all over the ballpark, and it honestly just gave me a sick feeling in my stomach.

I honestly and truly do not care about use of performance enhancing drugs. I’ve said “so what” to that argument so many times I’m tired of hearing myself say it. Granted, Bonds is a talented hitter with better hand/eye coordination than anyone I’ve ever seen play the game, but he’s still a jackass. I find it impossible to root for him and I found the spectacle the Giants staged surrounding that home run hit beyond excessive. I guess Peter McGowan wanted to make sure the fans got their money’s worth out of seeing what is ultimately not a very interesting or remarkable thing - a ball hit into the stands at a professional baseball game.

You might disagree with me, but folks Marco Scutaro hit a grand slam the other day for the A’s against Texas. Scutaro wasn’t even signed by the A’s to be an everyday player (although he pretty much has been the past three years because the A’s infielders have been so damned injury-prone). Marco seems like a nice guy, and he certainly seems like a hard working ball player who takes his job seriously, but I guarantee you that the elite pitchers in the majors do not fear his bat.

What it comes down to is this - forget steroids and conspiracy theories about juiced baseballs - home runs are easier to come by in the current era of baseball for two big reasons:

1. There are too many teams and too many jobs for starting and relief pitchers.
2. Major League Baseball markets the long ball to death.

On the first point, there are 30 big league clubs now. Up until the mid-1960s there were 16 teams. Also, in the current era of baseball the 5 man starting rotation has been adopted by everyone. Let’s not even get into the craziness that is specialized relievers and closers. Back in the 16 team era the standard rotation was 3 guys, with a handful of relievers in the mix, none of them specialists. If you confine yourself to just the starters, in the old days there were jobs for 48 starting pitchers in the big leagues. To get one of those jobs you had to be damned good. Even feeble teams like the old Washington Senators had impressive starters who could outwit most batters for 6 or 7 innings. Today there are more than 3 times that number of starting pitchers. But the available talent pool is really no deeper than it ever was. In fact, considering the declining popularity of professional baseball and the fact that there are no full-ride scholarships for college baseball (compared to hundreds available for football and basketball players), the depth of talent for young pitchers today compared to the number of jobs available in the bigs is darned shallow.

Now, you can argue that the talent pool is deeper today because of all the international players from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Japan, but I say bah and feh unto that. Other than guys who have come over from playing in the Japanese majors or the occasional Cuban defector, these guys haven’t really altered the pitching landscape much at all. Sure, you’ve got Pedro Martinez in there, but the vast majority of pitchers from the DR are undisciplined guys who throw smoke until their arms rapidly go to shit. And the Japanese players aren’t available until they reach the halfway point in their pro careers in Japan, so what we typically see is someone like a Hideo Nomo who is brilliant for a year or two and then goes to crap. The main thing the Central and South American pitchers contribute is keeping pitchers’ salaries low, because they’ll sign for much less than a comparable American prospect.

What I’m getting at is that Bonds has broken this record (and his record will not stand long) because it’s an eminently attainable record in today’s game. Sure, performance enhancing drugs have probably allowed Barry to play longer than his body would have naturally, but as my mother says, “steroids don’t hit the baseball for you.” He’s got talent and no one can or should deny that. But up against an equally gifted pitcher every day he’s not going to get anywhere near 756 home runs. After all, Greg Maddux made Barry look foolish this past Friday, sending him to the showers 0 for 4, and Maddux is far from the peak of his talents.

Barry got HR 756 off of Mike Bacsik, whose record for the Nationals this season is 5 wins and 6 loses out of 15 starts. His ERA is 4.47 this season and in his six years in and out of the big leagues he’s been bounced between 4 different teams, ending up this season with the Nationals, a club that seems to be fine with putting anyone with a pulse on the mound. Unless the number of teams is dramatically reduced or there is some sort of magical influx of gifted starters that comes into the game not only will Bonds’ new record not stand (something he understands himself and has publicly spoken about) but it will likely be broken in a few short years by Alex Rodriguez, who set his own record a few days ago as the fastest to 500 home runs, largely because he too faces more mediocre and downright lousy pitchers than good ones in any given season.

Ultimately I couldn’t watch the post-record spectacle because the whole thing is witless hyperbole. In an era when players can play well beyond the age when they would have been expected to retire a generation ago (for whatever reason) and where the overall talent of the pitchers is questionable at best hitting home runs just is not very special. It’s not a record that makes me want to cheer. So that I saw so little of the event last night doesn’t bother me a bit. In contrast I’m genuinely bummed that I missed seeing Tom Glavine get his 300th win. Glavine’s record is utterly unlike the home run record. If baseball doesn’t change dramatically these home run records are going to fall repeatedly during the next decade or two, while in contrast the same things that make home run records progressively less special make getting to 300 wins as a starting pitcher even more rare and impressive.

With the 5 man rotation and piles of relievers on every bench in MLB it’s going to be pretty much impossible for anyone to make it to 300 wins in a career. Your average starter just does not start enough games (or get deep enough into them to get credited with a win) nowadays. Glavine may be one of the last people to ever reach this plateau.  Baseball fans seem to understand that.  National TV ratings for Glavine’s 300th win were better than ratings for the game in which Bonds tied Aaron’s record.  Baseball fans know the difference between rare and common.  Unfortunately, Major League Baseball does not.

The marketing for Bonds’ record setter was absurd.  Subtract the chase of this record from the Giants’ 2007 season and no one, apart of die-hard Giants fans, has much interest in watching the team play this year.  To say that they stink is a massive understatement.  The other Barry in a Giants uniform (Zito) started last night, and he was feeble.   Zito, the Giants’ supposed staff ace has been eminently hittable all season.  If anyone needs proof, the Nationals, one of the least talented clubs in professional baseball, beat him handily last night.

If Barry Zito is representative of current big league pitchers worth $126 million over seven years then honestly, I rest my case.  Zito’s ERA so far this season is worse than the hack Bonds got his 756th homer off of last night, at 5.16.  Zito has 8 wins and 10 losses out of 23 starts this year.  If that’s what’s worth $18 million a year as a starter these days then we can be absolutely certain to see Bonds’ home run record fall and watch him sink into third, fourth and fifth place in the record books before this era is through.

Technorati Tags: Barry Bonds, Giants, Peter McGowan, Marco Scutaro, the A’s, Major League Baseball, Washington Senators, Pedro Martinez, Hideo Nomo, Greg Maddux, Mike Bacsik, the Nationals, Alex Rodriguez, Tom Glavine, Zito, Barry Zito